The effects of child mortality changes on fertility
choice and parental welfare
Raaj K. Sah
Journal of Political Economy, Volume 99, Number 3, June 1991, pages 582-606.
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Empirical studies have overwhelmingly shown that a lower child mortality rate leads to lower fertility. Yet it has not been possible to satisfactorily analyze this relationship in even the simplest theoretical models. This paper attempts to bridge this gap between theory and the empirical literature. The paper also presents results on the effects of child mortality changes on parental welfare. The analysis captures the dynamic stochastic feature of fertility choice, subsumes other endogenous choices (e.g., the quality of the children), and treats the number of children as a discrete variable (this added realism is important for the analysis).
Previous working versions include:
“The effects of mortality changes on fertility choice and individual welfare: Some theoretical predictions.” Yale University, Department of Economics. Economic Growth Center, Center discussion paper number 599. December 1989.